Sunday, December 28, 2008

Job Creation Math

Carol Baum with Bloomberg wrote a great piece on Friday. In short, government does not create jobs it can only enable the private sector to do so. That is done with less regulation and lower taxes. If government could create jobs, their would be zero unemployment. However, when everyone is "working" for the government no value is created. There is no profit to tax and the growth of government cannot be sustained.

It is only through productive investment in the private sector will real job growth occur. The government does not know what industries will be successful. If they did I am sure synfuels and ethanol would be huge today. Instead, they are both colossal failures.


Here are some highlights from Bloomberg:

If putting people to work is the goal, we could get rid of all the heavy earth-moving equipment and go back to digging ditches with shovels.

Why stop there? If it takes one man two days to dig a trench three feet deep and 30 feet long with a shovel, how long would it take 100 men using spoons?

You get the point. We can always create jobs by replacing capital with labor, by going backward. The entire history of civilization has been characterized by an effort to move in the opposite direction and become more productive, which is another way of saying produce more with less.

All Aboard

Automation and technological innovation have had the effect of replacing humans with machines. Yet the unemployment rate isn’t perpetually rising. As countries develop, they create new and better jobs, not more of the same old ones. The goal is to raise the standard of living, something that (all economists agree) can only be achieved through higher productivity growth.

That’s something the government can’t provide. It doesn’t “sell” its goods and services to discerning buyers. It isn’t driven by the prospective return on its investment.

Instead, the government requires us to pay taxes in exchange for goods and services -- transportation, education, homeland security -- that may or may not be worth the “cost.”

There’s nothing like a crisis to play on the public’s insecurity and expand the reach of government. There’s nothing like a serious financial crisis to get economists of all persuasions on board.


Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Spend, Spend, Spend

B Hussein is getting advice from his economic team that he must run huge deficits and push enormous government spending programs to get the US on the road to economic recovery.

Many of these government programs involve the "greening" of industry and heavy spending on Federal buildings to make them more efficient. Of course Jimmy Carter tried this. He spent in the neighborhood of $15-20 Billion to find an alternative to oil and we taxpayers have nothing to show for it today. My guess is that B Hussein will spend many multiples of Carter's folly and have a similar result. Why? Because oil is cheap and oil is effective. Even at $143 per barrel, oil is the best energy bargain there is.

B Hussein is trying to force the economy where he wants it to go. In the meantime, he is suffocating business by employing scarce capital and resources into larger government instead of letting it find its way into productive businesses. Government does not create value, it only robs people of their money. Government programs are nothing more than paying people to dig holes and others to fill them in. They might be disguised as something else, but the results are the same. Expensive programs that add nothing to the wealth of society.

No on entity, not even the Federal Government, can force the economy into a direction it does not want to go. For that matter, the Russians could not even accomplish that feat with fear and intimidation. Market forces are unstoppable and the sooner B Hussein realizes that the sooner we will be on the road to actual recovery. This means companies must fail (and government must let them) and the government cannot run unlimited deficits.

Speculation is that B Hussein will propose over $1T in deficit spending when he takes control. This is money the government does not have. They will either raise taxes and/or borrow more money. If they raise taxes (on individuals or businesses), they send the signal that government knows how to use money more effectively that it citizens. If government decides to borrow more money, it robs the private sector of loans to finance expansions or improvements. After all, there is only so much investment capital to go around. What the government takes, private industry losses. Borrowing will much more expensive, as private sector is forced to compete for funds with the government, and return on investments lower since interests rates will be higher. Since returns will be lower, fewer projects will meet private sector hurdle rates thus fewer of them will be completed.

What needs to be done is to close Federal buildings instead of improving them so government can get even bigger. Government spending needs to be balanced with tax receipts, and the corporate tax rates need to be lowered to levels that are competitive against our economic competition around the globe. Lower government spending and lower corporate taxes mean the private sector will grow creating new jobs and industries. These jobs will make society better and new industries will employ workers in areas where there will be improvements in standard of living.

Bigger government means more bureaucracy and more waste. Bigger deficits mean our children and grandchildren will live in a more uncertain world where their economic security is at risk (as if more than 40% of the US Federal Budget to pay interest on debt was not enough today). A program that decreases the size of government, spends less, and lowers taxes will take incredible courage and there will be short-term despair. However, this is the process of economic pruning that will make society more prosperous in the future.

Pianos and Cars

From the Mises Institute this week.

The End of the US Piano Industry

Today the highest-price good that people buy besides their houses is their car, and this reality leads people to believe that we can't possibly let the American car industry die. We couldn't possibly be a real country and a powerful nation without our beloved auto industry, which is so essential to our national well-being. In any case, this is what spokesmen for the big three say.

What about the time before the car? Look at the years between 1870 and 1930. As surprising as this may sound today, the biggest-ticket item on every household budget besides the house itself was its piano. Everyone had to have one. Those who didn't have one aspired to have one. It was a prize, an essential part of life, and they sold by the millions and millions.

That too was new. Americans before 1850 mostly imported their pianos. American manufacturing was nearly nonexistent. After 1850, that changed dramatically with the flowering of what would become a gigantic US piano industry. The Gilded Age saw a vast increase in its popularity. By 1890, Americans fed half the world market for pianos. Between 1890 and 1928, sales ranged from 172,000 to 364,000 per year. It was a case of relentless and astounding growth.

They were used in classrooms everywhere in times when music education was considered to be the foundation of a good education. They were the concert instruments in homes before recorded music and iPods. They were essential for all entertainment. American buyers couldn't get enough, and private enterprise responded.

New York, Boston, and Chicago were the homes of these companies. There was the great Chickering piano made by a company founded in 1823 and which later led the world in beauty and sound. There was Hallet and Davis in Boston, J. and C. Fischer in New York, as well as Strich and Ziedler, Hazelton, William Knabe, Baldwin, Weber, Mason and Hamlin, Decker and Sons, Wurlizer, Steck, Kimball in Chicago, and, finally, Steinway.

The American piano industry was the greatest in the world, not because the Americans came up with any new and great manufacturing techniques, though there were some innovations, but because the economic conditions made it most favorable to be manufactured here.

With the rise of this industry came a vast marketing apparatus. Piano ads were everywhere, as a tour of old magazines shows. It was widely believed that spending money on a piano wasn't really spending. It was an investment. The money you paid would be embedded right there in this beautiful and useful item. You can always sell it for more than you paid for it, and this was generally true. So people would make great sacrifices for these instruments.

With the growth of this manufacturing came an explosion of shops that served the piano market all up and down the industry. Piano tuning was a big-time profession. Retail shops with pianos opened everywhere, and the sheet-music business exploded with them. Ever notice how in big cities the music stores are typically family owned and established 40, 50, and even 100 years ago? This is a surviving remnant of our industrial past.

All of this changed again in 1930, which was the last great year of the American piano. Sales fell and continued to fall when times were tough. The companies that were beloved by all Americans fell on hard times and began to go belly up one by one. After World War II the trend continued, as ever more pianos began to be made overseas.

In 1960, we began to see the first major international challenge to what was left of the US market position. Japan was already manufacturing half as many pianos as the United States. By 1970, a revolution occurred as Japan's production outstripped the United States, and it has been straight down ever since. By 1980, Japan made twice as many as the United States. Then production shifted to Korea. Today China is the center of world piano production. You probably see them in your local hotel bar.

And what happened to the once-beloved and irreplaceable American piano industry? Steinway survives to make luxury instruments that few can afford (a reader notes that Baldwin is still around today too). Mason & Hamilin has made a great comeback in the high-end market. The rest moved overseas under new ownership or were completely wiped out.

Does anyone care that much? Not too many. Have we been devastated as a nation and a people because of it? Not at all. It was just a matter of the economic facts. The demand went down and production costs for the pianos that were wanted were much cheaper elsewhere.

Now, a piano aficionado reading this will say, buddy, you are crass. Listen to the sound of an older model Chickering and you can tell the difference. It was warm and wonderful, nearly symphonic. It is mellow and perfect for the best repertoire. By comparison, this new Chinese piano is sharp and angular and pointed. It sounds like a marimba. You can't play Schubert or Brahms on such junk. No one wants to hear that thing. Bring back the old days when pianos made sounds that sounded like real music!

Well, you can still get that old Chickering sound, even from a piano made in New York. You can buy a Steinway. Of course you have to pay $50,000 plus and even as much as $120,000, but they are there. You say that is unaffordable? Says you. It is all a matter of priorities. You can forego your house and live in a tiny apartment and still own the most gorgeous instrument money can buy. In any case, it makes no economic sense for you to demand a magnificent piano at a very low price when reality does not make that possible.

In the same way, many people will bemoan the loss of the US car industry and wax eloquent on the glory days of the 1957 Chevy or what have you. But we need to deal with the reality that all that is in the past. Economics demands forward motion, a conforming to the facts on the ground and a relentless and realistic assessment of the relationship between cost and price, supply and demand. We must learn to love these forces in society because they are the only things that keep rationality alive in the way we use resources. Without them, there would be nothing but waste and chaos, and eventual starvation and death. We simply cannot live outside economic reality.

Let's say that FDR had initiated a bailout of the piano industry and then even taken it over and nationalized it. The same firms would have made the same pianos for decades and decades. But that wouldn't have stopped the Japanese industry from taking off in the 1960s and '70s. Americans would have far preferred them because they would have been cheaper. American pianos, because they would be state owned, would fall in quality, lower and lower to the point that they would become like a Soviet car in the 1960s. Of course you could set up tariff barriers. That would have forced American pianos on us. Except for one thing: demand would still have collapsed. The pianos still have to have a market. But let's say you find a workaround for that problem by requiring everyone to own a piano. You still can't make people play them and value them.

In the end you have to ask, is it really worth trillions in subsidies, vast tariffs, impositions all around, just to keep what you declare to be an essential industry alive? Well, eventually, as we have learned in the case of pianos, this is not essential. Things come and things go. Such is the world. Such is the course of events. Such is the forward motion of history in a world of relentless progress generated by the free market. Thank goodness that FDR didn't bother saving the US piano industry! As a result, Americans can get a huge range of instruments from all countries in the world at any price they are willing to pay.

Today government is even more arrogant and absurd, and it actually believes that by passing legislation it can save the US car industry. It can subsidize and pay for uneconomic activities, and pay ever more every year. The government can also pay millions of people to make mud pies because mud pies are deemed to be an essential industry. You can do this, but at what cost and what would possibly be the point? Eventually, even the government will have to accord itself to the reality that economics reminds us of on a daily basis.

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Ad That Really Makes The Point

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Another Great LTE

Editor, Baltimore Sun

Dear Editor:

Dan Neil wants to nationalize General Motors, in part because "without big subsidies, there is no way in the near term to build these [electric] vehicles and make a reasonable profit, because of the stubbornly high cost of advanced batteries" ("Let's nationalize GM," Dec. 8).

Neil makes several wrongheaded assumptions. For example, he assumes that the future benefits of such a battery would outweigh the current costs of using them. But there's no way he can know this to be true. These batteries cost a lot today because their production requires an extraordinary amount of resources today. Using these resources to produce an unprofitable battery means that we sacrifice, TODAY, a great deal of profitable outputs and investments in other industries. Perhaps resources artificially forced into advanced-battery development would otherwise have helped cure cancer, or encouraged development of more fuel-efficient jet engines, or deployed to keep millions of retired Americans more financially secure. Neither Neil nor Uncle Sam can know the value of what would never be created as a result of subsidizing unprofitable production in Detroit.

Sincerely,

Donald J. Boudreaux

Don Boudreaux is the Chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University and a Business & Media Institute adviser

Letter To My Congressmen

Dear Senator,

I understand there will be a vote any day on the Big 3 bailout. As my Senator, I request that you reject this bailout as nothing more than rewarding failure. The management failed to negotiate profitable deals with unions and develop cars people actually wanted to buy. Unions failed by holding companies hostage in good times and running them into the ground in bad times. Government failed as it pushed ridiculous CAFE standards on carmakers that did nothing to curb gasoline consumption.

The entire domestic auto business, as it relates to the Big 3, is a failure and the money thrown at this problem will do nothing to get consumers to buy their products. Let them go bankrupt. There will be investors willing to buy the assets in bankruptcy and produce cars and trucks in these very same plants. Yes the unions will have to make huge concessions and I am sure new owners will change the management teams. This is a good thing and the only thing that will save Detroit.

Just as Pittsburg rebuilt itself after the bust in steel 20 years ago, Detroit will find it’s way too. Reject the bailout and focus on cutting government spending and waste. If the Big 3’s business plans were so good, investors would be buying bonds today. Government is no wiser than the markets and will certainly lose it all for the taxpayers.

Respectfully yours,

XXXXXXX

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Sowell Wisdom

Thomas Sowell has a great column in Townhall this week.

Referring to mandatory community service for young people:

Indeed, many of those who promote compulsory "community service" activities are bitterly opposed to even voluntary military training in high schools or colleges, though many other people regard military training as more of a contribution to society than feeding people who refuse to work.

In other words, people on the left want the right to impose their idea of what is good for society on others-- a right that they vehemently deny to those whose idea of what is good for society differs from their own.

The essence of bigotry is refusing to others the rights that you demand for yourself. Such bigotry is inherently incompatible with freedom, even though many on the left would be shocked to be considered opposed to freedom.

Great Letter

Great letter in Baltimore Sun this week:

Editor, Baltimore Sun

 

Dear Editor:

 

You opine that Detroit automakers "need to explain in detail to Congress how they intend to eliminate thousands of uneconomical dealerships, swiftly bring their labor costs closer to what Toyota pays its workers in this country, and quickly produce more energy-efficient cars that Americans will want to buy" ("Selling American cars," Dec. 4).

 

No. These companies deserve investment funds only if they're able to make cars that will sell AND can demonstrate this ability to private investors. Congress is manned by people who specialize in winning popularity contests called "elections." These are not people expert in judging business models, or at pondering the pros and cons of different retail-distribution methods, or equipped to accurately discern the nuances of consumer demands for automobiles, or even – judging from their track record – aware of the most elementary principles of finance and economics.

 

If, say, you're looking for someone to manage your 401(k), would you entrust that job to Sen. Mikulski or Rep. Hoyer? Of course not, for that's not what they do. So why entrust them and other politicians with the job of investing on a vastly larger scale?

 

Sincerely,

Donald J. Boudreaux

 

Don Boudreaux is the Chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University and a Business & Media Institute adviser.

 

Thursday, December 4, 2008

If the plan is so good, why not sell bonds?

With the Big 3 lobbying for a bailout with their new and improved business plans, one has to wonder why Congressmen would not buy bonds with their own money if they were so good?

Wall Streeters are not giving them money or issuing bonds, so I believe very smart finance people think the Big 3 are doomed to fail.

Good Posts:


Health Insurance

Great post at Carpe Diem this week.

Cell Phones and Cable or Health Care?

See it here.